Mexico Becomes Key Oil Supplier to Cuba Amid Crisis

MEXICO CITY — As the United States tightens its grip on Venezuelan oil and adopts a firmer stance toward Cuba, Mexico has stepped in as a pivotal fuel supplier for the island nation.

Strained Relations with the U.S.

This shift in dynamics could complicate Mexico’s already delicate relations with the Trump administration. However, the Mexican government maintains that there has been no increase in oil exports to Cuba.

Historical Context

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged the importance of Mexico’s role in supplying crude oil to Cuba, particularly in light of Venezuela’s ongoing crisis. She emphasized that historical shipments remain consistent and clarified that no specific increase in deliveries has occurred.

Humanitarian Aid vs. Commercial Sales

Sheinbaum mentioned that current shipments are conducted under “contracts” or categorized as “humanitarian aid,” but did not provide specific numbers of barrels being exported.

The Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Cuba

Since the 1959 revolution that overthrew dictator Fulgencio Batista, the U.S. has enforced a trade embargo against Cuba following the nationalization of American assets. This embargo, criticized globally—including by Mexico—has led to severe economic hardships and energy crises for the Cuban population, prompting mass migrations, especially towards the United States.

Current Living Conditions in Cuba

Daily life in Cuba is often marked by extended blackouts and long queues at gas stations, illustrating the severe energy shortage. José Martínez, a resident of Old Havana, expressed concerns that the turmoil in Venezuela will exacerbate the situation in Cuba, while vendor Yeison Gálvez lamented the potential impact on transportation due to fuel shortages.

The Future of Oil Shipments

Uncertainty surrounds whether other countries will increase oil shipments to Cuba following the U.S. actions against Venezuela. Mexico’s future oil export plans remain ambiguous, and despite accounting for a small percentage of overall exports, these shipments hold questionable economic viability as Pemex’s production continues to decline.

A Declining Trend in Oil Exports

From January to September 2025, Mexico exported approximately 19,200 barrels per day to Cuba, which included both crude and refined products. However, recent reports indicate a considerable drop in this figure, particularly after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Mexico City in September.

Challenges Ahead

Experts like Jorge Piñón from the University of Texas at Austin caution that the likelihood of increased Mexican oil shipments is slim, as it would provoke significant backlash from the U.S. Oscar Ocampo from the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness underscores that oil will remain a focal point of pressure from the U.S., adding complexity to an already challenging international situation.

Conclusion

Historically, Mexico has provided aid to Cuba during times of significant distress, including major shipments of oil following social upheaval in 2021. However, as 2025 approaches, projections indicate a decrease in Pemex’s crude exports. The situation remains fluid, with many factors at play in this complex geopolitical landscape.